While southern and western farmers might not rejoice at the forecast for drier times ahead, the prospect of clearer skies will be welcome by thousands of flood-weary Mid North Coast residents.

According to the Bureau of Meteorology an El Nino event has developed in the Pacific and that means drier than average conditions lie ahead for southeastern Australia.

Here on the Mid North Coast that means there is only a 30 per cent chance of exceeding the long-term average rainfall between now and the end of January.

The bureau is forecasting the total rainfall in our area will be between 200-300mm between now and the beginning of February.

After four flood events already this year that prediction is indeed welcome.

So far for 2009 the bureau has recorded 1921.8mm of rain over 122 days in Coffs Harbour. By contrast the comparative long-term average is 1529.7mm over 127 days, which means we’ve already had 25 per cent more rain than we should expect to the beginning of November.

While the wettest day of 2009 so far has been the 24 hours to April 1, when a fall of 260mm was measured, the wettest November day on record happened in 1996 when a staggering 369.4 mm was dumped on the city.

And be ready to start feeling hot.

While the long-term average maximum temperature is 24.9 degrees, on November 19, 1968, the mercury hit 43.3 degrees in Coffs Harbour.

The State Emergency Service (SES) is hoping the storm season lives up to its benign expectations after its busiest year on record in the local area.

SES spokesman Phill Campbell said while an El Nino weather pattern usually meant less rain and thunderstorms, it did not point to storms that hit the area being any less intense that in the past.

“Our advice is to prepare for the worst when it comes to summer storms,” Phil said.

“While the storm is passing through, stay indoors if possible.

“If you are driving, put on your hazard lights and pull over to the side of the road, clear of floodways, streams, creeks, causeways, trees and powerlines.”